Prediction of system responses
Knowledge about the future behavior of a structure is the basis for far reaching economical and safety relevant decisions in our society. Predictions regarding the future occurrence, intensity, and development of environmental influences, and of structural damage are indispensable to compute time-dependent safety levels and to estimate the life time of a structure. Sequences of data describing these parameters possess both stochastic uncertainty and informal uncertainty. A given concrete sequence of uncertain data can be characterized as fuzzy time series. Therefore, these sequences are considered as realizations of fuzzy random processes. Forecasts of these fuzzy time series provide knowledge about future system responses. Measurable structural responses and measurable impacts can be predicted directly, as well as nonmeasurable responses can be predicted indirectly by applying a computational model to time series with fuzzy data. As computational model the fuzzy structural analysis or the fuzzy stochastic structural analysis has to be applied.
Figure 1: Direct and indirect forecast of system response
- Möller, B, Beer, M, and Reuter, U (2005) Theoretical Basics of Fuzzy Randomness - Application to Time Series with Fuzzy Data, In: Safety and Reliability of Engineering Systems and Structures - Proceedings of the 9th Int. Conference on Structural Safety and Reliability, edited by G. Augusti and G.I. Schueller and M. Ciampoli. Millpress, Rotterdam, pages 1701--1707.